This article is part of David Leonhardt’s newsletter. You can sign up here to receive it each weekday.
You’ve no doubt seen the headlines: The unemployment rate is at its lowest level in nearly 50 years. Wages are rising at a decent clip. President Trump is taking credit, and his critics are nervous that this apparent Trump boom may help him win re-election.
How should you make sense of all this? I have three suggestions:
1. The economy really has improved.
Last summer, I wrote about a wage slump: Although the economy was growing, the average hourly wage for private-sector workers was increasing at only about the same rate as inflation. Rising gas prices were a big reason. Since then, wage growth has picked up a bit, as the unemployment rate has continued to fall, and inflation has dropped noticeably.
The result is a clear rise in wages, as you can see in the yellow line above. That’s good news. Americans need a raise. But as the chart shows, the recent raise doesn’t reflect some wholly new dynamic in the job market. It’s more about inflation, which can be volatile, than nominal wages.
Perhaps even more notably, the chart shows that the recent wage gains are nothing remarkable. The increases in 2015 were larger.
2. Trump’s policies have lifted short-term growth.
I didn’t like his tax cut, but it did inject a whole lot of money into the economy. That money has boosted economic growth in recent months. Paul Krugman explained the dynamic in a recent column, called “The Economics of Donald J. Keynes.”
Trump’s economic policy is also the subject of the new episode of “The Argument” podcast. Ross Douthat, Michelle Goldberg and I have some disagreements, but we all agree the economy is enjoying a temporary jolt right now.
3. There are reasons to think it won’t last.
The federal government isn’t likely to pass a big tax cut again this year, which means the stimulative effects will start to wear off. There are already some signs of a potential slowdown: As good as the latest G.D.P. report was, even it offered reasons to think growth would soon slow, as Jason Furman of Harvard noted.
And although inflation isn’t about to spike, it does seem to be rising. Gas prices are again a big factor. After falling late last year, they’ve risen again this year.
The political effects
You should always view economic forecasts with extreme skepticism. It’s virtually impossible to know with any confidence where the economy is headed.
I think the most likely situation in 2020 is that the economy will be neither a big help nor a big problem for Trump. It will probably keep growing, but not as strongly as it has over recent months. Even more important, most Americans have endured more than a decade of disappointing G.D.P. growth and even worse wage growth. Workers have lost so much bargaining power that even a very low unemployment rate no longer guarantees strong wage growth. A few good months have not left workers feeling flush.
With all that said, I want to acknowledge the possibility that the economy will do better than now seems likely, and that Trump will be able to base his re-election campaign on its strength. In that case, as Bret Stephens has argued, Democrats will need to figure out how to explain why he still doesn’t deserve a second term.
Presidents may have limited control over the economy’s movements, but citizens often vote as if presidents deserve the credit or the blame.
If you are not a subscriber to this newsletter, you can subscribe here. You can also join me on Twitter (@DLeonhardt) and Facebook.
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神童网白金五码【在】【万】【福】【殿】【中】【吃】【完】【了】【饭】【之】【后】，【李】【承】【明】【挥】【手】【让】【人】【将】【东】【西】【撤】【下】，【而】【后】【对】【着】【旁】【边】【站】【着】【的】【王】【虎】【道】，“【王】【虎】！” “【卑】【下】【在】！”【身】【为】【亲】【卫】【统】【领】【的】【王】【虎】【连】【忙】【走】【了】【出】【来】，【抱】【拳】【道】。 “【把】【之】【前】【本】【王】【传】【给】【你】【们】【修】【炼】【仙】【法】【的】【另】【外】【十】【人】【找】【来】！”【李】【承】【明】【淡】【淡】【的】【吩】【咐】【道】。 “【是】，【殿】【下】！” 【王】【虎】【匆】【匆】【而】【去】，【而】【后】，【李】【承】【明】【又】【挥】【手】【让】【人】【去】【把】
【第】379【章】【打】【破】【落】【石】【阵】 【刘】【一】【刀】【点】【了】【点】【头】【道】：“【这】【样】【吧】，【你】【们】【在】【这】【里】【吸】【引】【他】【们】【的】【注】【意】。【我】【从】【那】【边】【山】【壁】【上】【爬】【上】【去】。【他】【们】【自】【然】【就】【顾】【不】【上】【丢】【石】【头】【了】。【这】【阵】【也】【就】【破】【了】。” 【沈】【煜】【道】：“【可】【是】【这】【山】【壁】【如】【此】【陡】【峭】，【你】【如】【何】【爬】【上】【去】【呢】？” 【马】【崇】【圣】【笑】【道】：“【山】【壁】【虽】【然】【陡】【峭】，【可】【是】【要】【上】【山】【顶】【却】【又】【有】【何】【难】？” 【刘】【一】【刀】【道】：“【马】【道】【长】
【五】【天】【之】【后】。 【青】【水】【之】【上】。 【武】【鸿】【泽】【和】【方】【问】【柳】【立】【于】【甲】【板】【之】【上】，【翘】【首】【上】【望】，【在】【明】【月】【的】【映】【衬】【下】，【崖】【壁】【闪】【烁】【着】【银】【白】【色】【鳞】【片】【般】【光】【辉】，【美】【轮】【美】【奂】，【惊】【艳】【异】【常】。 【方】【问】【柳】【轻】【声】【道】：“【这】【崖】【壁】【虽】【不】【算】【高】，【但】【至】【少】【有】【一】【百】【来】【丈】，【若】【是】【不】【慎】【跌】【落】，【即】【便】【不】【会】【跌】【死】，【那】【也】【至】【少】【伤】【筋】【断】【骨】。” 【武】【鸿】【泽】【微】【笑】【道】：“【正】【是】【如】【此】，【柳】【飘】【絮】【才】【不】【会】
【苍】【茫】、【大】【气】、【沧】【桑】、【悲】【凉】、【欣】【喜】！ 【歌】【声】【传】【荡】【九】【天】，【明】【明】【是】【同】【一】【首】，【听】【在】【每】【个】【人】【耳】【中】，【却】【截】【然】【不】【同】。 【有】【人】【听】【出】，【歌】【声】【中】【的】【悲】【凉】，【那】【是】【历】【经】【万】【事】，【看】【淡】【浮】【生】【的】【沧】【桑】。 【有】【人】【听】【出】，【歌】【声】【中】【的】【气】【魄】，【那】【是】【睥】【睨】【八】【荒】，【唯】【我】【六】【合】【的】【独】【尊】。 【有】【人】【听】【出】，【歌】【声】【中】【的】【长】【生】，【那】【是】【岁】【月】【荣】【枯】，【唯】【我】【不】【朽】【的】【永】【生】。 …… 神童网白金五码【地】【面】【上】【的】【斯】【克】【将】【虫】【们】【攻】【击】【被】【阻】【挡】【下】【来】，【却】【也】【不】【是】【很】【气】【恼】。 【它】【们】【和】【天】【空】【中】【的】【斯】【克】【将】【虫】【对】【视】【一】【眼】，【似】【是】【发】【现】【了】【这】【名】【强】【大】【的】【人】【类】【女】【子】【的】【破】【绽】【之】【处】。 【两】【只】【飞】【行】【的】【斯】【克】【将】【虫】【继】【续】【振】【翅】【朝】【着】【余】【静】【扑】【来】，【其】【他】【四】【只】【地】【面】【上】【的】【却】【是】【不】【管】【余】【静】，【一】【心】【朝】【着】【受】【伤】【的】【江】【南】【市】【众】【人】【攻】【去】。 【余】【静】【的】【心】【中】【顿】【时】【焦】【急】【不】【已】。 【她】【有】【信】【心】【将】【两】
“【你】【可】【以】【出】【来】【受】【死】【了】！” 【韩】【子】【明】【自】【打】【接】【了】【魏】【岳】【的】【电】【话】【后】，【就】【一】【直】【憋】【着】【一】【股】【怒】【吼】，【他】【看】【上】【的】【女】【人】，【竟】【然】【被】【别】【搂】【在】【怀】【里】，【这】【就】【是】【在】【打】【他】【的】【脸】。 【一】【向】【以】【宗】【主】【接】【班】【人】【自】【居】【的】【他】，【怎】【么】【可】【能】【让】【这】【个】【污】【点】【留】【在】【世】【上】。【待】【杀】【了】【此】【人】【后】，【他】【还】【要】【让】【孟】【子】【琪】【知】【道】【背】【叛】【他】【的】【下】【场】。 “【小】【子】，【圣】【子】【在】【向】【你】【挑】【战】！” 【见】【陆】【凡】【坐】【在】【那】
【话】【落】，【他】【没】【有】【注】【意】【到】【那】【人】【眸】【眼】【轻】【轻】【颤】【了】【一】【下】。【继】【续】【道】：“【明】【明】【知】【道】【自】【己】【患】【了】【无】【精】【子】【症】【还】【一】【直】【和】【你】【在】【一】【起】。【让】【那】【么】【期】【待】【结】【婚】【的】【你】【的】【希】【望】【落】【空】【了】，【我】【真】【的】【真】【的】【很】【抱】【歉】……” 【说】【着】，【他】【垂】【下】【了】【眸】【眼】，【那】【藏】【在】【黑】【暗】【之】【中】【的】【眼】【睛】【微】【微】【湿】【润】，【泛】【着】【泪】【花】。 “【耽】【误】【了】【你】【那】【美】【好】【的】【八】【年】【的】【时】【光】，【我】【也】【很】【抱】【歉】……” 【他】【低】【着】【头】【一】
【老】【夫】【人】【听】【到】【这】【话】【后】，【将】【视】【线】【向】【太】【后】【投】【去】。 【而】【此】【时】【的】【太】【后】，【却】【满】【脸】【慈】【爱】【地】【看】【着】【怀】【王】，【她】【轻】【轻】【地】【摇】【头】。 【当】【着】【文】【武】【百】【官】【与】【外】【国】【使】【节】，【怀】【王】【只】【能】【将】【私】【人】【情】【绪】【放】【下】。 【他】【全】【程】【不】【再】【看】【皇】【帝】，【他】【怕】【他】【会】【冲】【过】【去】【将】【皇】【帝】【狠】【揍】【一】【顿】，【他】【咬】【着】【牙】【挨】【到】【宴】【席】【散】【场】。 【宴】【席】【散】【后】，【怀】【王】【立】【即】【朝】【皇】【帝】【奔】【去】。 【傅】【远】【和】【傅】【尚】【找】【到】【了】【国】【公】